Special Reports: Energy:

Shell’s future scenarios – Staring into energy’s black hole

Shell’s “energy scenarios” see fossil fuels remaining a huge part of the energy mix to 2050. But are they realistic? And if Shell is right, what does it mean for the planet’s future?….So what do others make of Shell’s predictions and dire warnings about the future of climate change and energy? Opinions are mixed.

“Shell is living in la la land,” says Mark Lynas, author of climate disaster bestseller “Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet”. “They are constructing scenarios where they continue to be relevant as a fossil fuel company.” Lynas points out that the climate crisis is so serious that what he calls the “real world” will not tolerate such a high carbon vision of energy for 2050. “The whole scenario process should be about figuring out realistic outcomes and planning for them, whereas what Shell seems to be doing is deciding what they would most like to happen, and writing it down,” he says, calling Shell’s scenarios a “political exercise”.

Shell’s view that stabilising global carbon emissions at 450ppm is unrealistic is “totally irresponsible”, says Lynas. “If we don’t stabilise at way below 450ppm we’ll see irreversible climate change with several tipping points being crossed as a result,” he argues. “They are obviously saying that the world can go fry and that their profits must come first.” Lynas believes that despite oil company claims that they can innovate around the frameworks set by politicians and prosper in a low-carbon world, the current large energy majors will eventually die off, as newer, hungrier firms replace them with what he calls “disruptive” energy technology.

David Strahan, author of “The Last Oil Shock”, says Shell’s best case analysis – Blueprints – is a “fairly disastrous scenario, because (by their estimation) coal is getting bigger as we go up to 2050”. Strahan notes that NASA’s Jim Hanson believes that if the planet managed to eliminate the emissions from coal-fired power stations by either closing them or capturing all the carbon, then “we squeak in at around 440 parts per million” of CO₂. “What’s interesting about [what] Shell [is] saying [is] that it’s the end of the planet” if they are right, Strahan claims.

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